Wednesday, February 6, 2008
IBS Sux
Not as much as cancer, but it still sucks. I've been in and out of pain / nausea all day. Getting sick of it.
Follow-Up to Yesterday....
...it always makes me feel good when I say something one day then read it the next day in the Wall St. Journal.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Economic Analysis: 2/5/2008
What's an interest rate? Depends. Are we talking real rate or nominal rate? Because the real interest rate is the nominal rate + inflation, or i = N + I. What's this mean folks? When the fed lowers interest rates, it really takes a chance on causing inflation to rise. Look at that equation. When the fed drops N by something insane like 75 basis points or 0.75%, do you really think real interest rates make the same drop? Guess gain folks. Look at the t-bill. Yeah, do some Googling, I'm not going to do all the work.
So let's say i drops by, I dunno, 40 basis points. But guess what? There's still 35 basis points to be made up. Guess who's butt that comes out of? I! That is, inflation.
With interest rates already being soooo low, dropping the interest rates are not our ultimate solution.
Enter taxes. And the God-awful tax rebate in the economic stimulus package. Want people to spend? Give them more to spend by cutting taxes! Or give them instant gratification by giving a tax rebate! This is fine and will generate a small sputter. Here's the problem ladies and gentlemen. It's an election year. You think Bush isn't playing politics? He wants a republican in the white house after him! The Dems are also making their points on this.
So we spend $150 billion on this package and get a bit of a sputter. Lower-income families will probably spend it. I bet the majority of the middle class pays down some debt! You know middle class Americans are averaging something nuts like $15,000 in "crap debt" (aka credit cards). That doesn't stimulate the economy.
This $150B is not new money! It's government money. We already have quite the debt (Bush's 2012 proposal is laugable but that's a different writeup). We'll either have to issue more debt or raise taxes to pay for the $150B. Sure the tax raise won't happen right away. But it will happen within the next 3 years. Dem or Rep in the White House, it will happen in 3 years.
Toss in some dreary economic data received today and we have ourselves one heck of a CF!
But guess what? GO BUY STOCKS! Yes! They have no doubt gone down in price which means they are now a better value. I do not see them dropping too much more. But don't freak out. You'll buy a stock and it WILL drop a bit. No biggie. You're an investor right? That means long-haul.
Guess what else? GO BUY REAL ESTATE! It's a bargain! Can you afford a second property maybe to rent out? Go buy it! No? Buy REITs!
It sucks now. We're probably in a recession. If not it will hit soon. But I think we're ready for it. I don't think it will be here very long. Just expect to pay more for stuff on the other side of it.
Lessons for today?
1) Inflation will happen. Don't even get me started on gasoline and its economic effects.
2) The stimulus package won't work in the long run.
3) Taxes will go up within the next 3 years.
4) Stocks and real estate are good values now. (See: Contrarian Investing)
5) Recession will happen. Shouldn't last long. The end result? See #1
So let's say i drops by, I dunno, 40 basis points. But guess what? There's still 35 basis points to be made up. Guess who's butt that comes out of? I! That is, inflation.
With interest rates already being soooo low, dropping the interest rates are not our ultimate solution.
Enter taxes. And the God-awful tax rebate in the economic stimulus package. Want people to spend? Give them more to spend by cutting taxes! Or give them instant gratification by giving a tax rebate! This is fine and will generate a small sputter. Here's the problem ladies and gentlemen. It's an election year. You think Bush isn't playing politics? He wants a republican in the white house after him! The Dems are also making their points on this.
So we spend $150 billion on this package and get a bit of a sputter. Lower-income families will probably spend it. I bet the majority of the middle class pays down some debt! You know middle class Americans are averaging something nuts like $15,000 in "crap debt" (aka credit cards). That doesn't stimulate the economy.
This $150B is not new money! It's government money. We already have quite the debt (Bush's 2012 proposal is laugable but that's a different writeup). We'll either have to issue more debt or raise taxes to pay for the $150B. Sure the tax raise won't happen right away. But it will happen within the next 3 years. Dem or Rep in the White House, it will happen in 3 years.
Toss in some dreary economic data received today and we have ourselves one heck of a CF!
But guess what? GO BUY STOCKS! Yes! They have no doubt gone down in price which means they are now a better value. I do not see them dropping too much more. But don't freak out. You'll buy a stock and it WILL drop a bit. No biggie. You're an investor right? That means long-haul.
Guess what else? GO BUY REAL ESTATE! It's a bargain! Can you afford a second property maybe to rent out? Go buy it! No? Buy REITs!
It sucks now. We're probably in a recession. If not it will hit soon. But I think we're ready for it. I don't think it will be here very long. Just expect to pay more for stuff on the other side of it.
Lessons for today?
1) Inflation will happen. Don't even get me started on gasoline and its economic effects.
2) The stimulus package won't work in the long run.
3) Taxes will go up within the next 3 years.
4) Stocks and real estate are good values now. (See: Contrarian Investing)
5) Recession will happen. Shouldn't last long. The end result? See #1
Monday, February 4, 2008
Health Update
First Andy: He's great! He saw his oncologist today and she was very pleased at the way he is progressing. We also stopped by the fourth floor and said hello to the nurses. They were happy to see him. It felt weird being there. Kinda felt like outsiders. I can't really describe it. Sure he's still an oncology patient but he's basically done with cancer. Like I said, I can't really describe it.
Me: IBS. That's irritable bowel syndrome. We're pretty sure anyway. Colonoscopy will tell for sure. This is actually pretty good news, all things considered. At least it's not cancer.
Me: IBS. That's irritable bowel syndrome. We're pretty sure anyway. Colonoscopy will tell for sure. This is actually pretty good news, all things considered. At least it's not cancer.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Super Bowl Betting
Super Bowl betting is illegal in Missouri I think. But if I were to break the law and bet, which I never would, I would have a game with the rules as follows. Feel free to use my idea at your own Super Bowl party, assuming you live in a state where this kind of thing is legal. ;)
Super Bowl Bets for Charity
NOTE: THIS IS FOR FUN ONLY AND IS NOT ENDORSED BY ANY CHARITY
The following bets all pay even money. If you bet $0.25 and win, you get $0.50. If not, you lose. Plain and simple. No line, no o/u. Just even money.
• First team to score: ______
• Last team to score: ______
• First team to commit a turnover: ______
• First team to use a coaches’ challenge: ______
• First team to use a timeout: ______
• First team to be charged with a penalty: ______
• Last team to score wins game
• There will be a score in the last two minutes of the first half
• There will be a score in the last two minutes of the game
• There will be a score in the first 6 and a half minutes of the game
• There will be a successful two-point conversion
• There will be a blocked kick (kickoff, punt, safety punt, field goal, extra point, free kick, or drop kick)
• Tom Brady will be sacked 3 times
• There will be a recovered onsides kick
• There will be a safety
• The first half will have the highest point score
• The second half will have the highest point score
BONUS: The following are special odds bets!
• The Patriots will score three unanswered times 2.5:1
• The Giants will score three unanswered times 5:1
Betting ends 5 minutes prior to kickoff. All money is collected with the bet. Balances are tabulated throughout the game and paid after the game is complete.
Have fun and thank you!
Super Bowl Bets for Charity
NOTE: THIS IS FOR FUN ONLY AND IS NOT ENDORSED BY ANY CHARITY
The following bets all pay even money. If you bet $0.25 and win, you get $0.50. If not, you lose. Plain and simple. No line, no o/u. Just even money.
• First team to score: ______
• Last team to score: ______
• First team to commit a turnover: ______
• First team to use a coaches’ challenge: ______
• First team to use a timeout: ______
• First team to be charged with a penalty: ______
• Last team to score wins game
• There will be a score in the last two minutes of the first half
• There will be a score in the last two minutes of the game
• There will be a score in the first 6 and a half minutes of the game
• There will be a successful two-point conversion
• There will be a blocked kick (kickoff, punt, safety punt, field goal, extra point, free kick, or drop kick)
• Tom Brady will be sacked 3 times
• There will be a recovered onsides kick
• There will be a safety
• The first half will have the highest point score
• The second half will have the highest point score
BONUS: The following are special odds bets!
• The Patriots will score three unanswered times 2.5:1
• The Giants will score three unanswered times 5:1
Betting ends 5 minutes prior to kickoff. All money is collected with the bet. Balances are tabulated throughout the game and paid after the game is complete.
Have fun and thank you!
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Health Update, Cute Pic
It was awesome getting a burst of energy last night. I think it was just pent up from being laid-up all week. I'm happy to report that for the first time I woke up this morning and wasn't in pain or nauseated. I can still feel whatever is bothering me but it doesn't hurt. Kinda weird. Maybe my appendix was swollen and it's healing? Dunno.
You'd think that after being up until almost 1:00am working on my basement I'd be able to sleep in? Wrong. I'm a dad. Remember?
We had a good amount of snow here in St. Louis a couple days ago. When I was going through the camera last night I came across this pic. Cute huh? They were so excited when they realized what was going on. Andy had no clue but he knew his brother and sister were excited so he got excited. At least we know Andy's succeptable to mass hysteria.
Enjoy!
You'd think that after being up until almost 1:00am working on my basement I'd be able to sleep in? Wrong. I'm a dad. Remember?
We had a good amount of snow here in St. Louis a couple days ago. When I was going through the camera last night I came across this pic. Cute huh? They were so excited when they realized what was going on. Andy had no clue but he knew his brother and sister were excited so he got excited. At least we know Andy's succeptable to mass hysteria.
Enjoy!
Dad's Chillout Room - No Smoking
Yes ladies and gentlemen look at the time. It's 12:22AM. I'm just now finishing my basement.
I should back up. I worked today. In fact I worked half of yesterday. I'm better. I'm not 100% but I'm better.
While I've been sleeping for the last few days I've been thinking about my basement. My basement is also caled my "office" and the word "office" is always in quotes. It's my place. At least the half on the southwest is my place.
So a bunch of ideas have been running through my head over the last few days. Today is the first day I've actually felt like doing anything. I worked 8 hours today and got to a good stopping point so I was done. I can play the long-hour-day game next week.
So after work I cleaned up my "office" with much help from Julie. I kinda decorated it. The theme is basement. Appropriate, eh? Basically everything I did to the place involves taking something that's been in my basement for years doing nothing and putting it to use.
Tell ya what. I'll post some pics. Lemme go snap a couple.
Ok I'm back. I sure wish I had some "before" pics. We put a lot of work into the basement tonight. We turned it from a cave into a new room in the house. w00t!
I should back up. I worked today. In fact I worked half of yesterday. I'm better. I'm not 100% but I'm better.
While I've been sleeping for the last few days I've been thinking about my basement. My basement is also caled my "office" and the word "office" is always in quotes. It's my place. At least the half on the southwest is my place.
So a bunch of ideas have been running through my head over the last few days. Today is the first day I've actually felt like doing anything. I worked 8 hours today and got to a good stopping point so I was done. I can play the long-hour-day game next week.
So after work I cleaned up my "office" with much help from Julie. I kinda decorated it. The theme is basement. Appropriate, eh? Basically everything I did to the place involves taking something that's been in my basement for years doing nothing and putting it to use.
Tell ya what. I'll post some pics. Lemme go snap a couple.
Ok I'm back. I sure wish I had some "before" pics. We put a lot of work into the basement tonight. We turned it from a cave into a new room in the house. w00t!
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